Delusional Or Egotistical?
John Hood at NRO's The Corner points out that Hillary Clinton is not done yet. As he points out, ego is a prerequisite for a politician:
First, they believe — and I think they are correct — that by talking up Texas, Ohio, and Pennsylvania for weeks, they have reduced the political value of Obama's February wins and programmed the media to wait until next month to call the nomination race (it helps matters that the media wants a live race to attract audience and sell to advertisers). Admittedly, they must win all three states for this "February didn't happen" strategy to work, but they still think they can do this.
Second, they believe — and I'm not as sure about this one — that they can woo our old friend John Edwards to endorse Hillary, perhaps after wins in Texas and Ohio on March 4. Such a move would snag them a couple dozen delegates, which in the Democratic proportional-vote system would be like winning a couple of primaries, plus perhaps give them a leg up in the next big-state primary after Pennsylvania's: North Carolina's May 6 contest, with 115 delegates at stake.
Third, they believe — and I haven't seen enough reporting to know whether they are right about this — that there will, in the end, be large delegations seated at the convention from Michigan and Florida, where she won lots of popular votes (some but not all by default). If the primary results are used to apportion them, the Clintons are willing (and they believe able) to weather the resulting storm. If the party uses some other means, such as a hastily called caucus or state convention, they think they can prevail. Haven't they always?
Gerard Baker at the Times of London warns that the Obama campaign had better get some hazmat suits right away. Because Clinton will see no alternative to going utterly toxic in the next few weeks:
A few months back, as Barack Obama’s campaign was just beginning to look like it might seriously challenge Hillary Clinton’s presidential ambitions, a senior Obama campaign official sent a warning to his staff.
It was a succinct message designed to forewarn and forearm his people against what was expected to be a ferocious onslaught from an increasingly desperate Clinton campaign.
“Better get your hazmat suits on”, the memo told them
If they didn’t do it then, the Obama team should now be reaching urgently for the protective outerwear, because following another night of crushing defeat for Mrs Clinton, it seems that the Clintons have only one remaining hope if they are to wrest the Democratic nomination – a highly toxic attack on the man who is now clearly the frontrunner.
How bad will it get? Well, Baker thinks it is going to get really ugly, real fast – because time is running out:
The Clinton campaign may need to reach deeper into the negative campaigning armoury if they are to have any chance. They will doubtless be looking at Mr Obama’s remarkably low negative ratings in polls and wondering how they can push them up.
Until now the danger has been that negative attacks could backfire. That is a risk that will probably now have to be taken, even if it damages the Democratic party as a whole. The Clintons have only a matter of days to save their lifelong aspirations. They will not give them up without a fight.
I have no doubt Clinton will go down that path. The attacks are going to become ferocious. But I suspect (some commenters are going to disagree) that this is going to backfire spectacularly. Clinton's recent attacks have made her sound weak, I believe that the upcoming ones will sound even worse – for her. Instead of looking presidential, she is sounding shrill and desperate – and is reminding voters of everything they disliked about the Clintons in the first place.
But I also have no doubt she is going to go down that road, regardless of consequences.
By feeblemind, February 20, 2008 @ 12:45 pm
I agree with you assessment, Gaius. Another problem HRC has going negative is that you have an unlikeable person attacking a very likeable person, and I think that will increase the likelihood that a negative campaign will backfire.