Who’s Last Chance?
An interesting take on the Texas and Ohio primaries from Michael Goodwin today. He points out that the focus has been on Clinton and her must-win status in both contests. Goodwin points out that it may just as well be Obama's last chance to knock Clinton out – if he cannot do it now, he may not be able to before the convention. Or at all.
You hear it everywhere: Tuesday is Hillary Clinton's last stand. If she can't win Ohio and Texas, she's history.
True, mostly. But it's not the whole story. The rest goes like this: This is Barack Obama's third chance to knock her out. If he can't close the deal this time, maybe he can't close the deal, period.
Either the third time is the charm for him, or it could be strike three against him. Any result tomorrow that doesn't finish her off lets her argue that Democratic voters' love affair with Obama was just one of those flings. She'll say buyer's remorse has set in, and it's time to get serious about winning the White House.
She'll also bring up her wins in the disputed Michigan and Florida primaries and repeat her vow to fight for those delegates.
Given the wacky past two months, those arguments would keep her alive. They start with the claim that even a split decision tomorrow would fit a pattern showing voters can't commit to the Illinois rookie.
True enough, I suppose. But the campaign funds might become scarce if Clinton barely ekes out a win in one or both states. But it would give her a pretty big club if Obama cannot stop her. (I still think Clinton will get pounded, but this is an interesting mental exercise, anyway.)
Other Links to this Post
-
Public Secrets: from the files of the Irishspy — March 3, 2008 @ 12:30 pm
By martian, March 3, 2008 @ 2:26 pm
I’m actually hoping she wins a significant victory in both Texas and Ohio tomorrow. Why? A couple of reasons; first as this article pointed out tomorrow could just as well be Obama’s last stand as hers. I would be very happy to see his messaihness go down in flames at this point. The possibility that he could become POTUS scares the living doo doo out of me. Second, it would mean that they will remain at each others’ throats possibly right up to the convention in August, doing constant damage to each other the whole time. That could only be an advantage for Republicans. I have to agree with Rush Limbaugh at this point. The best thing that could happen would be that all the Republicans in Texas cross the aisle for one day and vote for Hillary in their open primary. Give her the win in the primary and you could effectively deny the White House to the Dems for another four years.