Between Barack And A Hard Place
Robert Novak looks at the corner the Democrats have painted themselves into. It is a tight spot with very little hope of a good resolution.
In head-to-head tests with Clinton, he is two points behind in Gallup tracking and has slipped in other surveys, while still leading. Public polls for Pennsylvania taken before Obama's March 18 speech showed Clinton's narrow lead had expanded to double digits, and private surveys since then indicate that the margin is growing.
To combat that, the Obama high command on Friday privately contacted super-delegates to report that his Pennsylvania and Indiana polling numbers have "come back" (without specifying how much). Obama agents are also trying to minimize the distinctiveness of his embrace with Wright by distributing photos and letters showing Bill Clinton's contacts with the Chicago preacher in 1998, when the president's campaign against impeachment was wooing friendly clergymen.
The problem for Obama is that furor over Parson Wright has reached beyond voters normally interested in political controversies. Over the last week, I have been repeatedly asked by non-political people about Obama's connection with Wright's tirade. In the process, Obama's political persona has been altered — transformed, as described by one friendly Chicago politician, from Harvard Law Review to South Side activist.
Officially and publicly, the Clinton campaign has shied away from comment about Jeremiah Wright. But in off-the-record talks with super-delegates, Clinton's agents claim the connection casts doubt on Obama's electability. Furthermore, one Democratic operative who is inclined to Obama warns the issue will be raised in much harsher terms by Republicans during the general election campaign. In last week's Clinton conference call with the news media, campaign senior adviser Harold Ickes questioned "whether Sen. Obama is going to be able to stand up to the Republican attack machine."
Novak believes Obama is going to get the nod, not so much because of his performance to date, but out of the superdelegate's fear of alienating the party base. I have no idea if he's right about that. I am sure that the attacks from the Clinton camp will continue - and will grow progressively more harsh. No matter who gets the nomination, they will have been grievously wounded by the time they begin running against John McCain directly. And the loser's backers will be very unhappy with the party.
By martian, Monday, 24 March , 2008 @ 6:39 am
At this point it doesn’t matter which of them gets the nomination. There are growing numbers of supporters in both camps who are saying they will not vote for the other candidate if they get the nod. These people say they will vote for John McCain before they will vote for their candidate’s Democratic Party opponent. This can only be good for the Republicans. However, throw these people together with the conservatives who have been saying that they would rather vote for a Democrat than vote for John McCain and the November election becomes a real crap shoot. In this atmosphere the "swing" voters are going to be the most important people in the country come election day.
By syn, Monday, 24 March , 2008 @ 6:52 am
If McCain had not spent so much time poo-pooing Conservatives over the last seven years perhaps this election would not be so wacky.
In any case; elections always come down to ’swing voters’ (those who vote on popularity not on platform), why do you think McCain has been the media maverick poo-pooing Conservatives.
By Neo, Monday, 24 March , 2008 @ 7:39 am
<i>Furthermore, one Democratic operative who is inclined to Obama warns the issue will be raised in much harsher terms by Republicans during the general election campaign.</i>You think ?The only question left now is whether Rush and his army of ditto-heads should continue propping up Hiliary’s campaign ? With polls showing Obama in worse shape vs McCain than Hiliary, the need to help her out only rests on whether letting her die would allow the Democrats to make a "better" peace than propping her up to the end. My guess is that the support will continue to generate maximum animosity between the two Democratic camps and a longer lasting disunity going into Novemeber.
By tHOMAS jACKSON, Tuesday, 25 March , 2008 @ 12:21 am
eLECTIONS NEVER DEPEND ON INDPENDENTS OR SWING VOTERS. sHOW ME SOMEONE WHO DOESN’T KNOW WHERE HE STANDSON TAXES, THE DEATH PENALTY; FOREIGN AID; AFFIRMATIVE ACTION AND i’LL SHOW YOU A JERRY SPRINGER FAN. ELECTIONS ALWAYS DEPEND ON TURNING OUT YOUR BASE.
WE TODAY SEE A GOP THAT HAS LITTLE OF ITS BASE INTACT DUE TO MCCAINS ANTICS WHILE THE DHIMMIERATS HAVE TO CONTEND WITH THE INEVITABLE RESULTS OF PLAYING RACE AND GENDER POLITICS RESULTING IN A PARTY MELTDOWN.
WHEN ALL IS OVER MCCAIN WILL WIN IN A LANDSLIDE NOT BECAUSE HE WAS MORE POPULAR THAN NIXON BUT FOR THE SAME REASON THAT NIXON BEAT MCGOVERN. THE AMERICAN PEOPLE AREN’T READY FOR A MAXIST TODAY ANYMORE THAN THEY WERE READY FOR ONE IN 1972.