And It Really Hasn’t Gotten Ugly Yet
As down and dirty as the Democratic nomination race has gotten to date, it still has not reached epic proportions. One candidate or the other is going to have the party step in and take away their chance before this is over. (Harry Reid hinted just the other day that something would be done along those lines - in answer to a question about Hillary Clinton.) That's when real bitterness sets in. But even in today's atmosphere, there is distressing news for the Democrats from a Gallup poll. Some 19% of Obama's backers would vote for McCain if Hillary gets the nod. Worse yet, if Obama is anointed, 28% of Clinton's backers would jump ship. Can you say 'disaster'? I knew that you could.
These conclusions are based on an analysis of Democratic voters' responses to separate voting questions in March 7-22 Gallup Poll Daily election tracking. In each day's survey, respondents are asked for their general election preferences in McCain-Clinton and McCain-Obama pairings. Democratic voters are then asked whom they support for their party's nomination.
The accompanying graph displays the results of the relationship between support for the Democratic Party's nomination and the general election vote between Obama and McCain.
That would be enough to destroy either candidate in the general election. And it really has not gotten ugly yet. What happens when the party rips the nomination away from one or the other in a rather public spectacle and the candidate's supporters take it very, very personally? Gallup's numbers could well be low. And that doesn't even count the voters who might be discouraged and just stay home on election day.
By Quilly Mammoth, Wednesday, 26 March , 2008 @ 9:05 pm
Seal the deal: JC Watts or Michael S. Steele as Veep.I know JC but Steele is a hell of a speaker. I’m going to make the case for Romney…but Mike Steele is my secret prayer.
By martian, Thursday, 27 March , 2008 @ 9:19 am
"Some 19% of Obama’s backers would vote for McCain if Hillary gets the nod. Worse yet, if Obama is anointed, 28% of Clinton’s backers would jump ship. "
I pointed out this dilemma for the Dems several days ago right here at BCB. As I pointed out then, the swing voters will be even more important in this case than usual in the coming election. And the uglier it gets, the more supporters from either camp are likely to jump ship to the Republican side or just stay home if the opponent gets the nod.
To complicate things even more, there is now talk of a super delegate "mini-convention" to be held secretly within the next month or two to decide the race well in advance of the convention in August so they can start to campaign against McCain rather than each other and limit the damage to the party. Stay tuned and, Maggie, pass the popcorn.