Crackup?
Marc Ambinder has been looking at exit polls and thinks he sees a real problem for the Democrats. Things are looking very much like they may be falling apart for them – in a very big way.
Forget the horse race numbers for a moment: if the surveys are accurate, the polarization within the Democratic Party has reached critical levels. Nearly six in ten Obama supporters in Indiana say they would be dissatisfied if Clinton were the nominee — that's (I believe) the high percentage of Obama supporters who have ever said that.
In both IN and NC, two thirds of Clinton supporters say they'd be dissatisfied if Obama were the nominee — I believe that's the highest number recorded for that question, too.
The percentage of Clinton voters who say they'd choose McCain over Obama in a general election is approaching 40% in Indiana. Put it another way: in North Carolina, less than HALF of folks who voted today for Hillary Clinton are ready to say today that they'd definitely vote for Obama in a general election.
From the way he words the rest of his post, there is even more disturbing information in the crosstabs. Of course, I've been pointing out the potential – and likely – train wreck for some time now. (Not that it takes a Nostradamus to see the trap the Democrats had set for themselves.) This is the inevitable outcome of an identity-group centered approach that the Democrats have been practicing for ages. Their misfortune is that they ended up with two powerful "identity" candidates at the same time.
Talk about a backfire.
UPDATE: Rich makes another excellent point in the next post.
Other Links to this Post
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Blue Crab Boulevard » More Problems For Obama — May 6, 2008 @ 6:41 pm
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The Absurd Report » Late Update: There’s A Black/White Split In The Democratic Party — May 7, 2008 @ 7:54 am
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Right Wing Nation » Heh. — May 8, 2008 @ 9:45 am
By jacilyn, May 6, 2008 @ 6:48 pm
You know, over the past month, between being working class, white, "old", female, and a resident of the so-called rust belt, I have received more nasty insults than I ever would have believed possible – from what I thought was my own party. I am told I am not wanted there anymore, because there is a "new" kind of politics – one that is about "change", and that apparently means confronting what is wrong with….Democrats?This isn’t a party split. And it isn’t accidental. It’s a third party candidate taking over an existing party rather than starting up one from scratch. And it isn’t about race or gender at all. It’s about the fact that the party has decided to throw out everyone that Libertarians don’t like.What is really splitting the party is that Barack Obama keeps praising Republican ideas, leaders, and policies, while insulting and tearing down Democratic leaders, ideas, and policies. All so that he can position himself as a "new" kind of politician – while practicing a very old style of politics.
By Brian Miller, May 6, 2008 @ 11:55 pm
<i>It’s about the fact that the party has decided to throw out everyone that Libertarians don’t like.</i>I’m a Libertarian, and I assure you that we welcome and have many members who are working class voters, older voters, women, and rust belt residents along with everybody else. I’ve been watching the Democrats’ incredible meltdown from the sidelines, my eyes wide with amazement. Barack Obama doesn’t speak for us either — please don’t tie him to us, we don’t want him!
By sas, May 7, 2008 @ 6:36 am
Obama is a hugely destructive force in the party. I don’t even believe he is a Democrat. He praises Reagan and tears down Bill Clinton, even being satisfied painting the Clintons as racist.
I have been a Democrat for 37 years. If the party nominates Obama, I’m registering as an Independent. If this is the new Democratic party, I want no parts of it.