Comments on: Obama’s 20 Percent Solution http://bluecrabboulevard.com/2008/05/12/obamas-20-percent-solution/ Summum nec metuas diem, nec optes - Marcus Valerius Martialis Thu, 19 Apr 2012 09:00:56 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.0.4 By: Rich Horton http://bluecrabboulevard.com/2008/05/12/obamas-20-percent-solution/comment-page-1/#comment-78176 Rich Horton Wed, 14 May 2008 17:07:52 +0000 http://bluecrabboulevard.com/2008/05/12/obamas-20-percent-solution/#comment-78176 <i>Rich, I don’t agree with you that McCain deserves a pass up to this point. The mess in the Democratic Party has given him the perfect opportunity to step out front and really define himself. He has failed to do that.</i>   This is true, but with Republican fund raising lagging behind I think the decision was made to low-key it.  They were certainly correct that they would find it difficult to score much "free media" exposure with the Democratic circus in town.  Remember back to 2004 when Dean had that early advantage?  He ended up wasting his time and money making ad buys in places that were immaterial to the political reality of the moment.  If McCain's people thought something of the same about this moment I'm not gonna say they are wrong.   This is particularly true if they stick to campaign finance restrictions. <i>Rich, I don’t agree with you that McCain deserves a pass up to this point. The mess in the Democratic Party has given him the perfect opportunity to step out front and really define himself. He has failed to do that.</i>
 
This is true, but with Republican fund raising lagging behind I think the decision was made to low-key it.  They were certainly correct that they would find it difficult to score much "free media" exposure with the Democratic circus in town.  Remember back to 2004 when Dean had that early advantage?  He ended up wasting his time and money making ad buys in places that were immaterial to the political reality of the moment.  If McCain’s people thought something of the same about this moment I’m not gonna say they are wrong.
 
This is particularly true if they stick to campaign finance restrictions.

]]> By: martian http://bluecrabboulevard.com/2008/05/12/obamas-20-percent-solution/comment-page-1/#comment-78175 martian Wed, 14 May 2008 15:50:32 +0000 http://bluecrabboulevard.com/2008/05/12/obamas-20-percent-solution/#comment-78175 Rich, that is an excellent summary. Gaius, I don't think it's as scary as you think simply because it reflects only the way things work <strong>inside</strong> the Democratic Party. Once you get into a general election, Rich is right, the black vote isn't enough to carry him to victory. In a general election the Obamessiah has to win over a lot of moderate non-black voters on both sides of the aisle in order to win.   Rich, I don't agree with you that McCain deserves a pass up to this point. The mess in the Democratic Party has given him the perfect opportunity to step out front and really define himself. He has failed to do that. If McCain continues to run his campaign as he has up to this point, the Dems could run a frog against him and the frog would win. Rich, that is an excellent summary. Gaius, I don’t think it’s as scary as you think simply because it reflects only the way things work inside the Democratic Party. Once you get into a general election, Rich is right, the black vote isn’t enough to carry him to victory. In a general election the Obamessiah has to win over a lot of moderate non-black voters on both sides of the aisle in order to win.
 
Rich, I don’t agree with you that McCain deserves a pass up to this point. The mess in the Democratic Party has given him the perfect opportunity to step out front and really define himself. He has failed to do that. If McCain continues to run his campaign as he has up to this point, the Dems could run a frog against him and the frog would win.

]]> By: Blue Crab Boulevard » West Virginia Exit Polls http://bluecrabboulevard.com/2008/05/12/obamas-20-percent-solution/comment-page-1/#comment-78161 Blue Crab Boulevard » West Virginia Exit Polls Wed, 14 May 2008 00:10:29 +0000 http://bluecrabboulevard.com/2008/05/12/obamas-20-percent-solution/#comment-78161 [...] is more an update on my "Obama's 20% Solution" post than anything [...] [...] is more an update on my "Obama's 20% Solution" post than anything [...]

]]> By: C Stanley http://bluecrabboulevard.com/2008/05/12/obamas-20-percent-solution/comment-page-1/#comment-78155 C Stanley Tue, 13 May 2008 17:51:11 +0000 http://bluecrabboulevard.com/2008/05/12/obamas-20-percent-solution/#comment-78155 That's encouraging, Rich- I haven't been paying attention to those exit poll questions, and was just basing my speculation mainly on impressions from reading moderate blogs- but I should definitely know better than to do that.  ;-) That’s encouraging, Rich- I haven’t been paying attention to those exit poll questions, and was just basing my speculation mainly on impressions from reading moderate blogs- but I should definitely know better than to do that.  ;-)

]]> By: Rich Horton http://bluecrabboulevard.com/2008/05/12/obamas-20-percent-solution/comment-page-1/#comment-78154 Rich Horton Tue, 13 May 2008 16:38:34 +0000 http://bluecrabboulevard.com/2008/05/12/obamas-20-percent-solution/#comment-78154 Christine:  If you track the responses to the exit poll question "Did Obama attack unfairly?"  You can see it rise from the Super Tuesday or easy Obama win states (30-35% said yes in those) to 45-50% in PA and IN.  Even in an easy win like NC a full 40% thought Obama's campaign was unfair.  The people saying "yes" to that are not coming from the liberal voters, but from the more centrist.  The folks responding "yes" to the question "Is Clinton attacking unfairly?" are most likely from the liberal wing.  Its early days yet, but I think there is something to watch because it isn't as if the media hasn't been touting Obama all this time. Mwalimu:  I think its too early to characterize what the McCain campaign will look like in the fall, and I certainly dont think it would be worthwhile to spend any money when the Democratic race is so dominant in the headlines.  I have to give McCain and his campaign a pass to this point.  (Although I too wish they didnt come off so wishy-washy.) Marybel: lol!  No I dont think Rove and I share any relatives.  (HE's never at any of the reunions.)  Thx! Sam: thanks for the editing.  Christine:  If you track the responses to the exit poll question "Did Obama attack unfairly?"  You can see it rise from the Super Tuesday or easy Obama win states (30-35% said yes in those) to 45-50% in PA and IN.  Even in an easy win like NC a full 40% thought Obama’s campaign was unfair.  The people saying "yes" to that are not coming from the liberal voters, but from the more centrist.  The folks responding "yes" to the question "Is Clinton attacking unfairly?" are most likely from the liberal wing.  Its early days yet, but I think there is something to watch because it isn’t as if the media hasn’t been touting Obama all this time.
Mwalimu:  I think its too early to characterize what the McCain campaign will look like in the fall, and I certainly dont think it would be worthwhile to spend any money when the Democratic race is so dominant in the headlines.  I have to give McCain and his campaign a pass to this point.  (Although I too wish they didnt come off so wishy-washy.)
Marybel: lol!  No I dont think Rove and I share any relatives.  (HE’s never at any of the reunions.)  Thx!
Sam: thanks for the editing. 

]]> By: C Stanley http://bluecrabboulevard.com/2008/05/12/obamas-20-percent-solution/comment-page-1/#comment-78152 C Stanley Tue, 13 May 2008 15:19:17 +0000 http://bluecrabboulevard.com/2008/05/12/obamas-20-percent-solution/#comment-78152 As far as how this will fly with moderates, I think one needs to consider the bizarro world MSM spin on the racial tactics. As long as it's Hillary's fault that the primary campaign became focused on race, then moderates can still comfortably support Obama in the general. I hope I'm wrong but so far that's the way it looks to me. As far as how this will fly with moderates, I think one needs to consider the bizarro world MSM spin on the racial tactics. As long as it’s Hillary’s fault that the primary campaign became focused on race, then moderates can still comfortably support Obama in the general. I hope I’m wrong but so far that’s the way it looks to me.

]]> By: Blue Crab Boulevard » Obama’s West Virginian Debacle? http://bluecrabboulevard.com/2008/05/12/obamas-20-percent-solution/comment-page-1/#comment-78148 Blue Crab Boulevard » Obama’s West Virginian Debacle? Tue, 13 May 2008 13:51:39 +0000 http://bluecrabboulevard.com/2008/05/12/obamas-20-percent-solution/#comment-78148 [...] own simple model of this election cycle predicts a more modest 14 point win for Clinton. Let's call it a "mugging" instead of a [...] [...] own simple model of this election cycle predicts a more modest 14 point win for Clinton. Let's call it a "mugging" instead of a [...]

]]> By: No Runny Eggs » Blog Archive » The Morning Scramble - 5/13/2008 http://bluecrabboulevard.com/2008/05/12/obamas-20-percent-solution/comment-page-1/#comment-78145 No Runny Eggs » Blog Archive » The Morning Scramble - 5/13/2008 Tue, 13 May 2008 13:01:00 +0000 http://bluecrabboulevard.com/2008/05/12/obamas-20-percent-solution/#comment-78145 [...] Rich Horton outlines the “20 percent solution” for Obama, and while it isn’t pretty for West Virginia, he’ll be closer than Conventional Wisdom thinks in Kentucky. [...] [...] Rich Horton outlines the “20 percent solution” for Obama, and while it isn’t pretty for West Virginia, he’ll be closer than Conventional Wisdom thinks in Kentucky. [...]

]]> By: Sam L. http://bluecrabboulevard.com/2008/05/12/obamas-20-percent-solution/comment-page-1/#comment-78144 Sam L. Tue, 13 May 2008 05:13:13 +0000 http://bluecrabboulevard.com/2008/05/12/obamas-20-percent-solution/#comment-78144 That's "bell wether" (no "a" in it), "a gelded male sheep" (per my American Heritage Dictionary)  with a bell to lead the flock. That’s "bell wether" (no "a" in it), "a gelded male sheep" (per my American Heritage Dictionary)  with a bell to lead the flock.

]]> By: Mwalimu Daudi http://bluecrabboulevard.com/2008/05/12/obamas-20-percent-solution/comment-page-1/#comment-78143 Mwalimu Daudi Tue, 13 May 2008 02:37:17 +0000 http://bluecrabboulevard.com/2008/05/12/obamas-20-percent-solution/#comment-78143 The real trouble for Democrats will begin if they win in November. The MSM-floated notion that once the Messiah is nominated all will be sweetness and harmony for Democrats is pure snakeoil. Up until this year Democrats have used scorched-earth identity politics solely against Republicans. Bot millions of Democrats have for the first time been the targets of what the GOP has experienced for decades.   I have resigned myself to the fact that Democrats will probably win this year. The limp campaign (so far) of McCain and the RNC have made it easy for Democrats. But the Democrat-controlled Congress already has the worst approval ratings in history, and by the time next year the Messiah could be in similar shape. The real trouble for Democrats will begin if they win in November. The MSM-floated notion that once the Messiah is nominated all will be sweetness and harmony for Democrats is pure snakeoil.

Up until this year Democrats have used scorched-earth identity politics solely against Republicans. Bot millions of Democrats have for the first time been the targets of what the GOP has experienced for decades.
 
I have resigned myself to the fact that Democrats will probably win this year. The limp campaign (so far) of McCain and the RNC have made it easy for Democrats. But the Democrat-controlled Congress already has the worst approval ratings in history, and by the time next year the Messiah could be in similar shape.

]]> By: Marybel http://bluecrabboulevard.com/2008/05/12/obamas-20-percent-solution/comment-page-1/#comment-78142 Marybel Tue, 13 May 2008 02:18:58 +0000 http://bluecrabboulevard.com/2008/05/12/obamas-20-percent-solution/#comment-78142 Math is my worst nightmare, but after reading this <strong>twice</strong> I  finally got it. <strong> Holy smokes</strong>, I think you really nailed it, Rich.  Are you related to Karl Rove?  Impressive post indeed.  Viewed at this angle, so many things make so much more sense.  Many thanks. Math is my worst nightmare, but after reading this twice I  finally got it.  Holy smokes, I think you really nailed it, Rich.  Are you related to Karl Rove?  Impressive post indeed.  Viewed at this angle, so many things make so much more sense.  Many thanks.

]]> By: Gaius http://bluecrabboulevard.com/2008/05/12/obamas-20-percent-solution/comment-page-1/#comment-78140 Gaius Mon, 12 May 2008 23:52:55 +0000 http://bluecrabboulevard.com/2008/05/12/obamas-20-percent-solution/#comment-78140 That is a scary graph, Rich. I think you hit something here. Nice job. That is a scary graph, Rich. I think you hit something here. Nice job.

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