Obama’s West Virginian Debacle?
Open speculation like this can't be good for any presumptive nominee:
Doesn't look good anecdotally for Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., in West Virginia this Tuesday.
Party insiders say Sen. Hillary Clinton, D-N.Y., might beat him in the Mountaineer State on Tuesday by 30 points.
Yikes!
You want to know why superdelegates are trickling but not stampeding to Obama's side? His electoral weaknesses with white working-class voters, as evidenced by this pending stompage.
My own simple model of this election cycle predicts a more modest 14 point win for Clinton. Let's call it a "mugging" instead of a "beat down." Either way, the weakness inherent in the Obama strategy is becoming more and more apparent. Despite the ever increasing whinging from the press that anyone who doesn't like Obama must be a racist, there is the very real possibility of a significant anti-Obama backlash. Granted, West Virginia has fewer self identified "liberals" than a lot of places, but it should also be remembered that in 2004 half of West Virginians identified themselves as Democrats while only 32% called themselves Republicans. In a normal presidential election cycle without an incumbent West Virginia should be in play for the Democrats. A loss by Obama by 20 or more points will signal that it isn't.
Politics | Rich Horton Tuesday, 13 May , 2008
By Mwalimu Daudi, Tuesday, 13 May , 2008 @ 8:29 am
Democrat leaders have to know that a blowout loss by He Whose Middle Name Must Not Be Mentioned in West Virginia will generate unfavorable publicity. It is very hard to plausibly spin a 20 point loss (or even a 14 point loss) as some kind of huge victory.
For that reason I expect the Democrat Party machine to "generate" votes (Chicago-style) for the Messiah so that the MSM can run with the Obama-showed-unexpected-strength meme that they are desperate to use. We already see it in the ABC article with the overblown 30-point victory margin claim, and I would not be surprised to see Obama-friendly voting areas having 110% or better turnout.
The Washington Post smear piece was interesting. No fact checking of any of the claims by individuals who have obvious motivations to exaggerate. Is it just me, or does it seem that Al Sharpton is setting the MSM’s agenda these days?
By Rich Horton, Tuesday, 13 May , 2008 @ 2:50 pm
Yes, and remember, this generation of journalists all wanted to be Woodward and Berstein.
Yeah, right.