Prediction
Father Jonathan Morris, a Fox News Religion contributer, makes a bold prediction: The results of the election tomorrow will be much closer than the current polls or “Conventional Wisdom” predict.
1) According to varied professional sources with whom I have spoken, there exists a proportionally high number of potential voters who are refusing to be polled or express their opinion publicly. In a historic, high-octane race like 2008, I believe there are more reasons for a McCain supporter to stay silent than for an Obama supporter. It is understandable to imagine McCain supporters fearing labels such as “racist,” “homophobe,” “single-issue-voter,” “warmonger,” or “against change,” even if the voter is none of these.
2) Similarly, pollsters have reported higher than usual numbers of undecided voters or voters still capable of changing their minds. People know Senator McCain. Do they know Senator Obama well enough to break for him this late in the game?
3) Most importantly, in 2004, pollsters were caught by surprise by the amount of voters who left the polls saying “social issues” were most influential in determining their vote. In 2008, the media has been mostly silent on these causes, focusing instead on the economy and Iraq. This focus ignores an important reality. The “Value Voters” block of mostly Evangelicals and a good percentage of conservative Catholics and others, may indeed be wrapped up in these urgent headlines, but there is no convincing data to suggest they have inverted their voting priorities, turning away from abortion, traditional marriage, limited government, etc. If Senator Kerry’s policy proposals were enough to get this voting block to the booth, Senator Obama’s policies should bring them out in droves.
He does not predict a winner, just that it will not be a blowout in either direction.
For my own prediction, I offer this: The media will begin to trumpet exit polls as early as they possibly can indicating an Obama victory. I predict that whatever they announce as the victory margin for Obama will be more than 5% off (on the high side) when the real poll results are posted. Please keep in mind that the networks early call in Florida in 2000 may well have suppressed voters in Florida, touching off the whole fiasco that finally had to be ended by the Supreme Court.
In other words, simply carry on and cast your vote.
By martian, November 4, 2008 @ 1:18 pm
I have to correct one thing, being a Florida resident, the polls in Florida were already closed when the first network claim of Gore carrying the state was made. I will agree with the rest of both sets of predictions. Especially Gaius, prediction that they will be trumpeting a, probably, double digit lead for Obama from the exit polls in all states. The MSM is trying very hard to supress the McCain vote by convincing McCain voters the cause is already lost so why bother going to the polls and standing in those long lines? I can only hope that McCain voters are bright enough not to fall for it!