Exploding The Myths
One of the myths of the 2008 election is being exploded by none other than CNN. It seems that all the crowing about record turnout is highly exaggerated. While the turnout was a bit higher than in 2004, it was only a very, very little bit higher.
WASHINGTON (CNN) – A new report from American University’s Center for the Study of the American Electorate concludes that voter turnout in Tuesday’s election was the same in percentage terms as it was four years ago — or at most has risen by less than 1 percent.
The report released Thursday estimates that between 126.5 and 128.5 million Americans cast ballots in the presidential election earlier this week. Those figures represent 60.7 percent or, at most, 61.7 percent of those eligible to vote in the country.
“A downturn in the number and percentage of Republican voters going to the polls seemed to be the primary explanation for the lower than predicted turnout,” the report said. Compared to 2004, Republican turnout declined by 1.3 percentage points to 28.7 percent, while Democratic turnout increased by 2.6 points from 28.7 percent in 2004 to 31.3 percent in 2008.
The day after the election, there were multiple reports that there was a stunning increase in voter turnout. Those reports were about as accurate as some of the pre-election polls that touted a double digit lead for Obama. In the end, the lopsided electoral victory resulted despite the relatively close popular vote totals.
Nonetheless, Obama did win this. He just did not win by the huge percentage that was being predicted. Nor did he get the huge boost in people voting that was being trumpeted prior to the election. It is important to remember that.
By Rich Horton, November 7, 2008 @ 7:29 am
Actually, when you total in all the bogus registrations turned in by the Acorn folks I wouldn’t be surprised if the percentage of registered voters voting actually decreases.
By feeblemind, November 7, 2008 @ 8:36 am
I thought I read where there were 4 million fewer voters voting for the two major candidates than there were in 2004. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Repub stay-at-home percentage was much higher than 1.3%
By Foxfier, November 7, 2008 @ 11:43 am
Heh. Comment #3 reminds me of a cartoon I’ve seen floating around–
BUSH WINS WITH 51%! COUNTRY DIVIDED!
other side of cartoon:
OBAMA WINS WITH 52%! NATIONAL MANDATE!
The simple fact is that there is proof of voter fraud and voter intimidation. No, I don’t expect anything will be done about it– this year. It got attention far too late for action.
But there is next time.
By Quilly Mammoth, November 7, 2008 @ 12:10 pm
You have to see this. Remember the website where people like Yuri apologized to world about America electing Dubya? There’s new one where they implore the 48 % to unite to overcome the coming bad times.
http://www.zefrank.com/from52to48withlove/
Since Gaius runs a clean ship here I can not comment further. It is simply impossible to state my disgust with people who spent eight years trying to destroy the President of the United States during a time of war without using profanity.
By yuri, November 7, 2008 @ 9:30 pm
to Foxfier:
man, there are hard numbers to back this up.
2000, Bush: 47.9% of the popular vote
2004, Bush: 50.7% of the popular vote
1980, Reagan: 50.7% of the popular vote
so shut up and help us make this into a better country, will ya?
By Foxfier, November 7, 2008 @ 11:54 pm
yuri-
Please tell me you’re being ironic. You SHOW 51%, and then tell me to shut the hell up?
Grow up.
By yuri, November 8, 2008 @ 1:14 am
Foxfier-
apologies, “shut up” (even without “hell”) was probably too much. But you have to agree that the size of a “mandate” in this country is pretty slim in general, even for rainmaker-type presidents.
Nixon, to compare, was elected with 43.4%, Kennedy with 49.7%. You actually have to go back to 1952 Eisenhower to find non-incumbent president to win with a margin larger then Obama’s in terms of popular vote.
So Obama’s gap of 6% in the popular vote (especially compared to Bush’es -1% and 2%) are pretty impressive…
By Gaius, November 8, 2008 @ 4:21 am
That’s your last comment here, Yuri. You’re done.