Blue Crab Boulevard

What’s Wrong With This Picture?

We are being told – incessantly – by the media that the global economy is melting down. We are being told – over and over – that things are as bad or worse than they were in the Great Depression. We are being told – by the President-elect of the United States – that everything is bad and is going to get much, much worse. And yet….

And yet:

Two million people are expected to spend a record £320million online today, as internet stores turn the screw on the high street.

Virtual stores are estimated to rake in £13billion in the run-up to Christmas – up 15 per cent on 2007.
And 59 per cent of shoppers say they will use the high street as a showroom – looking at goods before buying online

The figures from internet trade body IMRG found 77 per cent of shoppers plan to do at least half their gift shopping via the web this year – up from 56 per cent in 2007.

The phenomenal growth comes despite concerns that that goods may be out of stock or delayed in the post.

Meanwhile, Visa said internet transactions account for 15 per cent of purchases on its cards.

IMRG director David Smith said: ‘Online has come of age this Christmas.’

Please click the link and look at the pictures of mobs – more than mobs – of people shopping in London. My wife, youngest son and I went out today to pick up a pair of boots my wife had ordered. We got to the store about two minutes before it was set to open. There was a mob of close to 100 people waiting for the doors to open. When they did open the doors, it was a non-stop flood of people into the store. It got more and more crowded as we picked up the boots and a few other things. When we went to get lunch, all – and I mean all – of the restaurants – were packed and the malls were crazy – cars and people everywhere. Traffic was insane.

What is wrong with this picture? Where is the crisis, exactly? Are there real problems with the economy – sure. Are they the end of the world as we know it? I have real doubts about that. So should you.

UPDATE: Whoa. The hit counter just exploded. Thanks to Glenn Reynolds for the Instalanche. Please do take a look around the Crabitat since you’ve clicked through to visit.

Economy, Media | Gaius December 7, 2008

By Americaneocon, December 7, 2008 @ 8:12 pm

I’ve been arguing for the retirement of the word “depression.” Boy is it overused.
By fretless, December 7, 2008 @ 8:22 pm

I’d vote for the complete abolishment of adjectives and adverbs from journalism, with the possible exception of those found within quotation marks.
By Steve J., December 7, 2008 @ 8:30 pm

We are being told – over and over – that things are as bad or worse than they were in the Great Depression.

Um, by who?
By Gaius, December 7, 2008 @ 8:52 pm

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1208/16258.html
By Gaius, December 7, 2008 @ 9:12 pm

One other thing, Steve. I notice you did not answer the question. What is wrong with the picture? If we need a new New Deal, one should be asking why.
By LINDALOO, December 7, 2008 @ 9:38 pm

I more than agree with you. We are told of the home foreclosure nightmare, but in my neighborhood there are no homes in foreclosure. The Christmas decorations are up and children are coming home from college for the holidays. The stores and roadways are busy and life seems to be going on as usual. Yes, our stocks and bonds are worth less than they were last year and the super inflated values on our homes have lessened but I think most of us kind of thought this might happen. Who could afford a home anymore if tract home sold for over a million bucks, as has been the case in many areas. For some reason the news media seems to be hyping bad news – I really can’t understand why. They got their guy Obama elected, you would think they could give it a rest now.
By lynndh, December 7, 2008 @ 9:43 pm

I too was out today. WalMart was packed. And so was Borders, where I returned some CD’s I had purchased for Christmas gift. I found them much cheaper on Amazon. Things are bad, compared to say last yr or two, but not as bad as the ’70’s, and certainly not a Depression.
By Jim, December 7, 2008 @ 9:46 pm

>>Um, by who?

Um, by every American newspaper and the president-elect, that’s who.
By David Lewis, December 7, 2008 @ 10:01 pm

Ummmmm… 6.5 then 6.7% unemployment… would those who think we are not in a severe recession, if not headed for a depression, like to enter a pool on what the peak unemployment rate will turn out to be. I assume, by your optimism, that you consider 6.7% to be near the top (or bottom, depending on your point of view).

Me, I’ll take 11%, and pray I’m not low.
By nerdbert, December 7, 2008 @ 10:06 pm

Who writes the news? Journalists.

Who have managed to drive their industry, used to local monopoly and monopoly level porfits, into the ground? Journalists.

Whose job prospects are looking horrible? Journalists.

No wonder those few left in journalism are so down on the economy — even if the rest of us manage a recovery, there’s basically no hope left for the old newsprint journalism model.
By Jim,MtnViewCA,USA, December 7, 2008 @ 11:01 pm

I tend to agree that things are better than anticipated but the people at the malls are those that are OK. Every recession people point to the malls being full. Watch a few months. Also, seems like this one is travelling East (wall street) to the West. If you are in a state that doesn’t touch the Atlantic you may not have seen much…yet.
By Hucbald, December 7, 2008 @ 11:59 pm

Well, it’s a good time to buy a house, so I bought one of those, and it’s a good time to by stocks, so I’m buying some of those too. Then, with cheap gas it’s a good time to take a vacation, so when the move into the new house is finished, I’m going to take one of those too.

Nothing is wrong with this picture, as far as I can see. Hope it continues like this for a while. LOL!
By Harvard@Cal, December 8, 2008 @ 12:59 am

Packed malls, cheap gas, no seats at the local dining establishment, yet the relentless drumbeat of doom and gloom? Bush is still in office. Once we wake up sometime in late January, early February (early March at the latest) we will be inundated with news of job growth, dropping unemployment and a surging economy. Just in time for you-know-who to take credit. And will the masses fall for it? Surely you jest…
By DensityDuck, December 8, 2008 @ 10:53 am

@lindaloo:
“some reason the news media seems to be hyping bad news – I really can’t understand why. They got their guy Obama elected, you would think they could give it a rest now.”

Well, there it is. The press sold their birthrights for a pot of message; they have a vested interest in making sure that the narrative proceeds as it’s supposed to, because otherwise what have they got left? Their fortunes are tied to those of the Democrats.

Lots of Republicans were told that the economy was going to crash, and it was all Bush’s fault, and that therefore they should vote Democrat. And they did–they sucked down that Kool-Aid and smiled because By God They Showed Those BASTARDS What It’s Really About!

Except now it’s the morning afterwards. The economy ISN’T crashing, and Obama ISN’T going to end all the wars. So all those Republicans are going to start looking at each other and saying, “wait a minute…we did WHAT with WHO?” And they’re going into full-own “chew your arm off” mode, and the Democrats will spend another twenty years losing elections.
By Bryan Price, December 8, 2008 @ 2:53 pm

The malls around me? Not empty, but they certainly aren’t as busy as they have in past years, and it’s visibly apparent from the lack of cars in the parking lot. Maybe they’re doing their shopping online?

Restaurants around me aren’t that busy, and when I do eat at one, they are quite happy that I decided to eat there. My next door neighbor owns one, and business is way down from last year.

I enjoyed Disney World last week. The sheriffs were picking up people right before they got on the Disney property. Orlando must really be hurting to be pulling tourists over for the revenue. The tourists tend not to come back. The attraction lines? Pretty much non-existent, some were literally walk the queue and get on the attraction. People were there, but certainly not the crowds that I’ve seen in prior visits.

Maybe it’s just Florida. The state is only projecting a budget shortfall of $2 billion this fiscal year, and $6 billion next.

And it looks like my wife will be laid off this month due to the current customer not being able to pay the bills. That says something when that customer is the government of the country with the best economy on their continent.

So Merry Christmas everyone!
By Steve J., December 8, 2008 @ 5:14 pm

By Gaius, Sunday, 7 December , 2008 @ 9:12 pm

One other thing, Steve. I notice you did not answer the question.

YOU didn’t answer mine. You have not provided a single quote, much less the dozen or so that would make your claim plausible.
By Steve J., December 8, 2008 @ 5:18 pm

We are told of the home foreclosure nightmare, but in my neighborhood there are no homes in foreclosure.

Yeah, like you are a bellwether for the nation.
By Steve J., December 8, 2008 @ 5:19 pm

By Jim, Sunday, 7 December , 2008 @ 9:46 pm

>>Um, by who?

Um, by every American newspaper and the president-elect, that’s who.

THIS IS A DELUSION
By Terrence, December 8, 2008 @ 5:32 pm

What the media is constantly reporting is indeed a DELUSION, Steve J. BUT THEY ARE INDEED RELENTLESSLY REPORTING IT, and the PRESIDENT ELECT IS HARPING ON IT NON-STOP, and saying the economy will ONLY GET WORSE. and the media are RELENTLESSLY REPORTING ON HIM SAYING SO.
By Gaius, December 8, 2008 @ 6:19 pm

Gee, Steve, I had no idea that I had to answer you first when you are posting a comment on my blog. Nice try, though.
By DensityDuck, December 8, 2008 @ 6:40 pm

Bryan: Your anecdotes about Disneyworld vacancy would be more telling if it weren’t FREAKIN’ DECEMBER.
By Bryan Price, December 8, 2008 @ 7:02 pm

@DensityDuck: Do you have a clue as to what the weather is like in central Florida in December? Gee, it only got up to freaking 74 during the day! The low was a shattering upper 60s! Not great weather to get soaked in, but it was better than a spring of fall day in Ohio at Cedar Point or King’s Island! If everybody was running around in long pants and jackets, you’d have a point. Most people were running around in just a shirt and shorts, a different story.

Going to Florida during the summer is stupid. Fall, spring and winter are probably THE times to be down here, if you’re a northerner.
By nerdbert, December 8, 2008 @ 9:34 pm

Dude, I lived in Florida. As a resident you can pick up a 4 season pass (go once per season fall/winter/…) for the price of one admission for a tourist. It’s empty every December. It’s the only season I really liked visiting the place.