According to various experts, it is quite likely that Democrats will lose a bunch of seats come November, 2010.
At the mid-August Netroots Nation convention, Nate Silver, a Democratic analyst whose uncannily accurate, stat-driven predictions have made his website FiveThirtyEight.com a must read among political junkies, predicted that Republicans will win between 20 and 50 seats next year. He further alarmed an audience of progressive activists by arguing that the GOP has between a 25 and 33 percent chance of winning back control of the House.
“A lot of Democratic freshmen and sophomores will be running in a much tougher environment than in 2006 and 2008 and some will adapt to it, but a lot of others will inevitably freak out and end up losing,” Silver told POLITICO. “Complacency is another factor: We have volunteers who worked really hard in 2006 and in 2008 for Obama but it’s less compelling [for them] to preserve the majority.”
Historic trends point to Republican House gains in the midterm election, particularly after facing two brutal election cycles where the party lost seats in every region and even in some of the most conservative states in the nation. Over the last five decades, the party out of power has picked up seats in 10 of the 12 midterm elections.
Turnout levels may also work in the GOP’s favor: House Democrats who narrowly won election in 2008 on the strength of high turnout among African-Americans and young voters probably won’t be able to count on that same level of enthusiasm next year in a nonpresidential election.
I can think of several scenarios where 2010 turns out to be a real debacle for Democrats. I have high hopes along those lines. One thing that I did not see mentioned in this article: House Democrats were frog-marched into passing the crap and tax bill, so their votes are already a matter of public record. If anything, that bill is very likely to become a bigger problem for Democrats in the long run than even the fraudulent health care “reform” they have been beaten over this past month.
They may hope that will be forgotten, but you can bet their challengers will not.
That issue will resurface soon. But there is still a lot of work to be done to force the end of ObamaCare. Don’t let up on that for a moment. Because the resistance to that is gaining ground against the statist agenda. That increased awareness will continue to erode Democrat’s chances next year.
Remember: 40 in ’10 is not impossible.