Signs And Portents

If Jay Cost can’t figure this one out, it must be pretty darn murky. How close are the Democrats to ramming some sort of health care “reform” down America’s throat? Cost is not sure, but the signs and portents are not particularly auspicious:

This does not seem like a beneficial development for reform efforts, in my opinion. You have one faction within the Democratic Party whipping in one direction, another whipping in the opposite direction. And we’re supposed to be just six weeks out from a final bill? Importantly, I’ve not yet seen evidence that one side or the other is prepared to buckle. Until I do, I have to conclude that serious hurdles remain.

Relatedly, there are reports that Pelosi intends to push the House bill to the left. Is this a sign that the Congressional Progressive Caucus (CPC) holds the most sway in the chamber? Or is it a reflection of her policy preferences? Either way, what happens during the conference process if the CPC remains staunch in its support of a robust public option?

Also, I have seen a lot of Baucus-blasting on the progressive blogs over the last few weeks. There has also been fighting between DailyKos and FireDogLake, on the one hand, and Blue Dog leader Jim Cooper on the other. That is not a positive sign. If Democrats are prepared to come together around a single measure, I have not seen a heck of a lot of evidence of it. It is quite possible that not just Republicans – but some faction of the Democratic Party – is going to be on the outside looking in if a bill is passed.

Obama and the Congressional Democrats tried mightily to pass this thing in a rush before the August recess. They failed and, as a result, an awful lot of Democrats in the trenches (as opposed to the leadership) got an earful from a lot of constituents. Despite the spin and all the water-carrying by the media, I think a lot of those Democrats in not-so-safe seats are genuinely worried about their political survival.

The Democrats are now trying to impose another deadline – they want a bill within six weeks. Cost quotes Mickey Kaus, who points out why:

“Orszag Sees Health Law in Six Weeks” (Bloomberg): OMB Director Peter Orszag didn’t really predict a health care law in six weeks–he said “The goal would be, yes, over the next six weeks or so, maybe sooner,.” We know all about “goals.” But the 6-week frame is not an accident, because something happens in 6 weeks: elections. If Democrats lose big gubernatorial races in New Jersey and Virginia, that could produce a new wave of jitters among already skittish Congressional swing Democrats.

I think that’s exactly right. If the Democrats lose in Virginia and New Jersey, there is almost no chance whatsoever of ObamaCare – in pretty much any form – passing. If they sweep both, we will be fighting a rear-guard action to try to repeal. Split decision is a pick. 

All the more reason to keep calling your members of Congress – now. Really. Keep calling, keep writing, keep up the pressure. Let them know you are not happy and you want ObamaCare stopped and real reform started again from square one.