It’s The Intensity, Stupid
Watch the intensity today. Not the polls, the intensity.
Polls can measure many things, but one thing they have a hard time getting at is intensity: Yes, people will tell a pollster whom they prefer in a campaign, but do they feel so strongly about their choice that they’ll actually go out to vote?
Only elections can answer the intensity question, which is the most important factor in Tuesday’s off-year governor’s elections in New Jersey and Virginia and, increasingly, a special election in a New York congressional district. Intensity, as much as outcomes, may provide the best insight into national trends heading into the much more meaningful election in 2010.
I think that’s going to be the real indicator in the outcomes of today’s elections. If the enthusiasm and intensity is there on the right, the Democrats will have a real problem in 2010. And I think that enthusiasm is there right now. A couple of wins will be nice. A couple of big wins, with heavy turnout will be a disaster for the White House and the Hill.
