Jay Cost, who I have a great deal of respect for as an honest interpreter of politics, polls and all the assorted bits and pieces that make up the world we political junkies inhabit, cautions about reading too much – or actually anything at all – into last night’s election results. (Consider this a dash of cold water – and something to think hard about).
As the great political scientist, E.E. Schattschneider, once famously said (and I’m paraphrasing here): the voters are a sovereign with a vocabulary of just two words, yes and no; moreover, they can only speak when spoken to. Reflecting on this insight over the years, I have found it to be one of the most profound lessons for understanding American elections.
The nature of our electoral system is such that voters are given a very limited role in the process of governance. With the exception of ballot initiatives, they do not get to sound off on specific issues. And, when it comes to elections for office, they only get to register their preferences for a candidate. They do not get to indicate what they liked about their candidate, what issues motivated them, what problems are worrying them, and so on. The exit polls provide us with some insight on their motivations, but they remain fundamentally obscured.
If the voice of the people is limited, our interpretation of what they have said must rest heavily on our filling in the many gaps. That can be a tricky endeavor – for we’re always inclined to fill in those gaps with our own voice, interpreting electoral returns in a way consistent with our own ideological dispositions. That can sometimes cause trouble.
I think there’s a lot to think about here. That does not mean I am planning on abandoning my own analysis of what I think happened last night. We know there is a lot of real anger out there against the Democrats and their agenda. We know Obama’s personal charm did not help in Virginia and New Jersey. We know that exit polling showed that an awful lot of independents broke – hard – for the Republican.
We should know that if we can form a solid messgae between now and election day that we can take seats away from Democrats in 2010.
We have to think about how to do it. Because we do have to stop this agenda or this country is in real trouble.
I was saying much the same thing as Cost before the elections.
The public is fed up with Washington. Period. Regardless of who has the steering wheel. The Big Swing Middle gave the Dems a chance based on years of demonization of the GOP and Dem promises of magic wands and fairy dust, and the Dems blew that opportunity in record time.
That does NOT translate into a love of the GOP or social conservatives.