James Pethokoukis from Reuters is predicting that the Democrats will lose the House in 2010. He cites a number of reasons, including this one:
7. Discontent with Democrats. At the same time, the generic congressional ballot has shifted from a high single-digit Democratic lead to a low single-digit Republican lead as independents veer back to the GOP. What’s more, a recent poll by the liberal Daily Kos blog found just 56 percent of Democrats definitely or probably voting in 2010 vs. 81 percent of Republicans. Note that a new Rasmussen poll has Sen. Ben “60th Vote” Nelson, who won reelection in 2006 with 64 percent of the vote, down 61-30 in a hypothetical 2012 matchup vs. Nebraska Gov. Dave Heineman. Dems in both chambers will surely take note of those numbers. Indeed, the prospect of a terrible 2010 environment has already pushed some veteran Democratic legislators in competitive districts into retirement such as John Tanner of Tennessee and Brian Baird of Washington.
I agree with his reasoning on the points he raises. (Please go over and read all the points he makes.) But I’m betting that he is actually overly cheerful about the Democrat’s electoral prospects. Why?
As a fresh poll measured the political cost of Sen. Ben Nelson’s health reform vote, he prepared Tuesday to take his case directly to Nebraskans during Wednesday night’s Holiday Bowl game.
Nelson will air a new TV ad in which he attempts to debunk opposition claims that the Senate legislation represents a government takeover, and he makes the case for health care reform.
“With all the distortions about health care reform, I want you to hear directly from me,” the Democratic senator says in the ad.
Nelson, dressed in an open-necked shirt and sweater, speaks directly into the camera during the 30-second ad.
The message will be launched during the Nebraska-Arizona football game and continue to air statewide for an undisclosed number of days.
I can promise you one thing, he will turn a seething rage against him by Nebraskans into a white-hot fever to get him out of office as soon as possible. Injecting his smarmy, lying face into Nebraskan homes during the holy-of-holies, a Husker game, is going to seriously piss off a lot of people. I know a number of Nebraskans personally. They will be very, very angry about this.
I have no idea if Nebraska has a recall provision. Or a removal tool that the legislature can use. But don’t be real surprised if a push to use or get such a tool begins real soon.
One thing I will predict, Bendover Nelson is gone by the next election at the latest. Nebraskans will not forget or forgive his betrayal. Nor will they buy his explanation. Defiling the Huskers game will be icing on the cake. (I have no idea which consultant thought that running a spot in that game would be a good idea, but I promise, he or she made a horrible mistake).
And other Democrats who think they are safe should pay attention. Bendover is the tip of the iceberg. Democrats have seriously underestimated the fallout from what they have already done this year. Passing the health care “reform” will guarantee a political bloodbath for the Democrats in 2010.