CNN has a “senior writer” explain the cheerful news that 85,000 more jobs were lost. Pollyanna would be proud.
Still, it wasn’t all bad news. Temporary hiring, typically an early indicator of a turnaround in the job market, continued to add jobs. Since July, employment in the temporary hiring sector has risen by 166,000. The healthcare industry remained a bright spot, adding 22,000 jobs in December for a total of 631,000 since the recession began in December 2007. There were other signs of recovery too:
* Average hourly earnings for production and nonsupervisory workers are up 2.2% in the past year and rose again 0.2% in December.
* The estimate that 11,000 jobs were lost in November was revised to a 4,000 gain.
* There were also gains in the professional and business services jobs as well as educational services.
Why, it’s just gladness all around! Ed Morrisey reports that the AP has finally stopped trying to spin this dismal, repetitive news as anything but what it really is: disastrous.
For a while, the Associated Press seemed determined to make “unexpected” and its variants the most overused term in economic reporting. Today, they give their readers an unexpected shock by dropping the forced sense of optimism normally used in giving bad economic news in their analysis of today’s jobless report. Instead, Christopher Rugaber reports the obvious — that the loss of 85,000 more jobs is nothing but bad news, and that the 10.0% figure hides the rot underneath:
Lack of confidence in the economic recovery led employers to shed a more-than-expected 85,000 net jobs in December even as the unemployment rate held at 10 percent. The rate would have been higher if more people had been looking for work instead of leaving the labor force because they can’t find jobs.
The sharp drop in the work force — 661,000 fewer people — showed that more of the jobless are giving up. Once people stop looking for jobs, they’re no longer counted among the unemployed.
When discouraged workers and part-time workers who would prefer full-time jobs are included, the so-called “underemployment” rate in December rose to 17.3 percent, from 17.2 percent in November. That’s just below a revised figure of 17.4 percent in October, the highest on records dating from 1994.
The fact is that the decline in jobs has been relentless throughout the year. There have been no bright spots, no indications that things are getting better whatsoever. None. There is no spin that can hide the graph Ed has up that shows the relentless decline.
Pollyanna is blind. Willfully blind.
The hiring of temporary workers is not a leading indicator – it is an indicator of exactly how bad the situation really is. Because companies are refusing to staff up, what with major, major tax penalties waiting only for Congress to approve the ObamaCare disaster. Those temporary workers will never become permanent – they would be a massive liability for the companies if they did so.
At least 17.3% of Americans are now in serious trouble. It is extremely unlikely that many of them will have any jobs at all for a very long time.Or will only find temporary, benefit-free jobs and will be subjected to the harsh penalties of ObamaCare if they cannot afford the sharply increasing health insurance costs that the “reform” will bring.
Many of them have been put into this situation directly as a result of Obama’s and Congressional Democrat’s policies and meddling in the economy.
Obama fiddles with and unwanted, unworkable and ultimately destructive “reform” while the economy and jobs burn.
The worst may yet be to come. The Bush tax cuts are set to expire, and the monstrosity called Obamacare has yet to hit the economy. We may look back upon 2009 as “the good old days”.
Yeah, I know.
Hiring temp workers is an indication that things are getting better. An employer will hire temps before he hires permanent workers and have to pay the benefits. Overtime hours are up again too. An indication that business is picking up. Again employers prefer to pay overtime before adding workers. Housing prices have bottomed. Truck freight is rebounding and that is another sign the economy is gathering steam. The economy will recover. The question is how much? There is no doubt that Obama & Co. are doing everything they can to smother the recovery.
Not necessarily. Temps are easy to shed if the going gets tough – or even looks like it. They are also cheaper than permanent workers since you do not have to pay a lot of things for them (like health care, retirement, etc.). If employers are to be squeezed by Obama and high taxes temps would be the way to go.
I also know from personal experience as a temp and working with temps that base wages (without considering benefits) are less than full-time would be.
The rise in overtime and temp workers may instead mean that employers are “hunkering down” for bad times ahead, and that the full-time jobs they replace may be gone for good.
That should be: “squeezed by Obamacare and high taxes”. My bad.
feeblemind,
The Conventional wisdom is wrong this time.
Gaius, you could well be right, and I am NOT cheer leading for Obamanomics. Quite the contrary, like you I am quite pessimistic about the economy, but my point is that we have to look at the data, not just ‘believe’ because we want the dems to go down in flames so badly this Nov. There is no doubt the economy is still in trouble. Tax revenues are still shrinking and my thinking is that the prospects of Obamacare and Cap & Trade are freezing the rehiring process. Still, I wouldn’t underestimate the ability of our entrepreneurs to grow and prosper. At any rate, I can think of a certain group that believes certain events are taking place because the ‘science is settled’. They shrug off contrary data with rationalizations. I don’t want to fall into that type of thinking.
Feeblemind,
I am not indulging in wishful thinking. I am a temporary contract worker. It is different this time. The old rules are not in effect.
I have been thinking that our (USA) employment mindset and culture are changing rapidly. We production and service workers will no longer take a permanent job for granted, ever again. Moreover, what we tell and teach our friends and children will be much towards getting eessential skills and common sense developed while they are teenagers and young adults.
Americans need to learn more basic economics than social justice.
We need learn CPR and basic medical care for each other than “healthcare politics”.
Also, we will need more people involved with production and less elite politicians-it makes for better politics.
Think about it and take it further.
Indeed. Which is why the rise in both overtime and number of temp workers might be a fundamental restructuring of the economy rather than a prelude to more full-time workers being hired. Time will tell, but with Obamacare and cap & trade hanging over the country like two unexploded nuclear bombs I think that a lot of full-time jobs may be gone for good.
I am now a full-time math instructor at a state-run community college (just started last Fall), and even as government pukes we are beginning to feel the pinch. The number of part-time instructors (meaning 1/2 and 3/4 time) is increasing. If you are not full-time, you get no benefits whatsoever. I would not be surprised to see the concept of a full-time instructor eventually disappear (along with the benefits we are paid) and replaced by part-time teachers.