Up Until Now…..

Every weekly or monthly unemployment report that showed job losses has been “unexpected”. (Every job report that showed even a very, very, very modest decline in the number of unemployment numbers has been heralded as nothing less than the Second Coming.) This month’s jobless report is suddenly – unexpectedly, so to speak – being spun as “expectly” bleak – well before hand.

White House economic adviser Larry Summers said on Monday winter blizzards were likely to distort U.S. February jobless figures, which are due to be released on Friday.

“The blizzards that affected much of the country during the last month are likely to distort the statistics. So it’s going to be very important … to look past whatever the next figures are to gauge the underlying trends,” Summers said in an interview with CNBC, according to a transcript.

Construction activity was hit particularly hard by the storms, but many restaurants and stores also had to close, putting the brakes on hiring plans and temporarily throwing some employees out of work.

Translation: The numbers are going to be disastrous. As in appalling. They know it and are desperately trying to get out in front of it. This is the first time the administration has tried to spin ahead of time even though they have known about bleak – seriously bleak – numbers in the past year. Up until now, every bad report has been just “unexpected”.

That should warn you about what is coming.

But ask yourself a question or two – especially when you consider the particular spin being offered by Summers:

many restaurants and stores also had to close, putting the brakes on hiring plans and temporarily throwing some employees out of work

Now any sane person has to wonder about what hiring plans any business has had recently. One also has to wonder if those few businesses who were actually thinking of hiring were waiting to see what Congress might pass in the way of sweeteners before making their decisions whether to hire or not.

Lo and behold, Congress passes a bill that will give employers a “tax holiday” from paying a relatively small tax bill – if they hire employees who have been out of work for a few months.

Ask yourself how many really smart employers are buying a temporary “benefit” for a year as an incentive – knowing that they will repay the “holiday” – with interest – at a future date when taxes inevitably rise to cover the “holiday”.

Ask yourself how many entry-level jobs, usually the important first job for teenagers – just became victim of the new beneficence from Washington. How many never-employed-before teens just lost any hope of a job to some employer eager to take Washington’s short-term bounty and hire older workers who have been unemployed the requisite number of days to meet the requirements of the new largess?

Then consider the unprecedented pre-spin.

How bad is it going to be?

I’m guessing it is really, really bad.