Sean Trende over at Real Clear Politics takes a look at how bad it looks for Democrats in November – and it looks very, very bad, indeed.
This year, five different polling companies have put Republicans in the lead for the generic ballot in the last two weeks alone – one reason why Michael Barone calls this the worst polling environment for Democrats “during my 50 years of following politics closely.” The RCP Average has Republicans leading Democrats by 2.8 points on the generic ballot test. That should equate roughly to a 225-seat Republican majority (Republicans won the national vote by 5 points in 1994), which would almost represent a 50-seat pickup.
But many of these polls survey registered voters. Polling among likely voters, such as Rasmussen Reports, shows Republicans up by about 8-10 points, which would probably represent a seventy-seat pickup.
And the polls of the most highly energized voters are even worse for Democrats. Recent NBC/WSJ polling found that Democrats led by three points among registered voters. But among those most interested in the November elections, Republicans led by 13 points.
This reminds me of the polling that showed Martha Coakley up 15 points in early January, but which also showed her and Scott Brown tied among those most interested in the race.
Please go read the whole post, it is important. Trende has dug deep and has some stunning facts at his fingertips. He makes a pretty strong case that a 100+ seat loss is not beyond the realm of the possible.
More importantly, the damage to the Democrat “brand” might be beyond repair – at least for a very, very, very long time. If Trende has this right – and I strongly suspect that he does – Obama may have crippled the Democrats for many years to come and confined his support to a few pockets that cannot have a national impact.
Republicans have an opportunity that may never have been seen before in American history – or at least in more than a century. But they have to listen to the American people, something the Democrats refused to do. If they manage that, November will be a political bloodbath. For the Democrats.