A Map Of The Valley

Sean Trende over at Real Clear Politics takes a look at how bad it looks for Democrats in November – and it looks very, very bad, indeed.

This year, five different polling companies have put Republicans in the lead for the generic ballot in the last two weeks alone – one reason why Michael Barone calls this the worst polling environment for Democrats “during my 50 years of following politics closely.” The RCP Average has Republicans leading Democrats by 2.8 points on the generic ballot test. That should equate roughly to a 225-seat Republican majority (Republicans won the national vote by 5 points in 1994), which would almost represent a 50-seat pickup.

But many of these polls survey registered voters. Polling among likely voters, such as Rasmussen Reports, shows Republicans up by about 8-10 points, which would probably represent a seventy-seat pickup.

And the polls of the most highly energized voters are even worse for Democrats. Recent NBC/WSJ polling found that Democrats led by three points among registered voters. But among those most interested in the November elections, Republicans led by 13 points.

This reminds me of the polling that showed Martha Coakley up 15 points in early January, but which also showed her and Scott Brown tied among those most interested in the race.

Please go read the whole post, it is important. Trende has dug deep and has some stunning facts at his fingertips. He makes a pretty strong case that a 100+ seat loss is not beyond the realm of the possible.

More importantly, the damage to the Democrat “brand” might be beyond repair – at least for a very, very, very long time. If Trende has this right – and I strongly suspect that he does – Obama may have crippled the Democrats for many years to come and confined his support to a few pockets that cannot have a national impact.

Republicans have an opportunity that may never have been seen before in American history – or at least in more than a century. But they have to listen to the American people, something the Democrats refused to do. If they manage that, November will be a political bloodbath. For the Democrats.

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5 Responses to A Map Of The Valley

  1. Maggie says:

    I’m a big hockey fan. I’ve seen too many games, especially IMPORTANT ones, where my team has had a nice lead … and sat back on their skates to blow it.

    Not only do republican candidates need to stay focused, but they need to sound strong and believable because they ARE believable. No ‘moderate’ crap.

    This is serious stuff here. I am beginning to see it as close to the initial beginnings of this nation’s first independent government as we’ve ever been.

  2. OKE E DOKE says:

    who are the repubs planning to win these seats with?

    the likes of M McConnel?
    other than paul ryan, i’m not seeing too much

  3. skeneogden says:

    I too am concerned that the Republicans won’t take advantage of this “once in a century” opportunity to demolish the Dems.

    We lack aggressive candidates and thoughtful policy making at the RNC and if the Dems lay low for the next 6 months it might just take enough heat off of them to mollify enough of the electorate to vote their way.

    I’m hopefully optimistic, but cautious. I’ve seen the GOP blow opportunities before.

  4. ropelight says:

    Never underestimate the Stupid Party’s instinct for electoral defeat, the GOP is practised at the art of self-destruction. The specter of Michael Steele looms ominously in the background, while the TEA Party performs under bright lights on Today’s center stage.

    With Steele leading the Republican Party’s election efforts, Democrats can take comfort in the knowledge their GOP opponents are poorly organized, under-funded, suffering from ideological confusion, consumed by petty squabbles, handicapped by conflicting loyalties, and divided by social, racial and religious irrelevancies.

    How the GOP responds to the TEA Party movement will tell the tale. So far, the Party’s response has not been encouraging. Rather than openly embrace the new Conservative protesters, the GOP remains cool and detached, seeking to either co-opt the movement or to leave it’s members with only the usual option of voting for the lesser evil.

    So long as Steele, and his ilk, remain in charge, the GOP will stay well positioned to squander the mid-term elections in a traditional Republican Party SNAFU.

  5. cargosquid says:

    The GOP has gotten so apathetic about challenging the Dems that I’ve begun to believe that the GOP is not serious about regaining control. This way they get the perks without the responsibility. They get to raise money without having to justify their decisions.

    I don’t think that, IF we win, we will win big.

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