I sincerely hope that Sean Trende’s analysis is correct. He’s bucking the “conventional wisdom” from several pundits and sees a brutal rout for Democrats in November:
Three conclusions follow from this. First, very few Republicans seem likely to lose in 2010. Second, if we use a spitball estimate that Republicans will win 2/3 of the competitive Democratic districts, which seems reasonable if the President is averaging a 40% approval rating there and Democrats are behind by 5 points on average in these districts, that nets the Republicans 40 seats right there.
But perhaps most importantly, what does this say about the next 30 or 60 Democratic districts, which were not polled? If the Republicans are winning handily overall in both the seats commonly thought to be highly competitive and in the seats thought to be less competitive, that seems to imply that there are probably a lot of races that aren’t on anyone’s radar screen that are competitive. I’m not saying that Republicans would win 2/3 of these districts or that they are winning there by ten points, but even a 30% win rate in the next tier of seats gets the Republicans to 50 seats overall. And I’m guessing their win rate would be higher, given how poorly Democrats are faring in their Tier I and Tier II seats.
Please go over and read the whole post. There is some very compelling evidence that Trende has assembled. It feels right. But it also hinges on people staying fired up and getting out the vote in November.
If NRO’s Jim Geraghty is right – and I suspect he is – then the announcement today of the Obama vs America lawsuit is all window dressing to fire up the far left and get them out to vote. Which is yet another indication that Trende is right – and the White House knows it.
I can see some possibility that there could be a Democrat candidate with whom I might agree and consider a good person. I have concluded, though, that I would not vote for him of her because such a vote is a vote for Nancy Pelosi or Harry Reid (if running for Congress) or too much encouragement for taxing and spending in my state of residency. There is a Democrat who I believe is doing a fine and proper job in his current (non-legislative) position–but I won’t vote for him for any legislative position.
I’m sorry I have to say it, but it’s the “birds of a feather” and “lie down with dogs” type of argument that is telling, for me.