He’s been doing this a long time and has a very good track record – and Charlie Cook is warning that all hell is going to break loose for Democrats in November:
Hart and McInturff then looked at the change among the most-interested voters from the same survey in 2008. Although 2010 is a “down-shifting” election, from a high-turnout presidential year to a lower-turnout midterm year, one group was more interested in November than it was in 2008: those who had voted for Republican John McCain for president. And the groups that showed the largest decline in interest? Those who voted for Barack Obama — liberals, African-Americans, self-described Democrats, moderates, those living in either the Northeast or West, and younger voters 18 to 34 years of age. These are the “Holy Mackerel” numbers.
Among all voters, there has been a significant swing since 2008 when Democrats took their new majority won in 2006 to an even higher level. But when you home in on those people in this survey who are most likely to vote, the numbers are devastating. The NBC/WSJ survey, when combined with a previously released NPR study of likely voters in 70 competitive House districts by Democratic pollster Stan Greenberg and Republican Glen Bolger, point to an outcome for Democrats that is as serious as a heart attack. Make no mistake about it: There is a wave out there, and for Democrats, the House is, at best, teetering on the edge.
Polls aside, I can tell you that I hear people who have never before talked politics to me following everything going on in Washington – and they are mad as hell. They vent daily about the latest Democrat/Obama fiasco. They want them stopped.
And a lot of these people are union members.
If they carry through with their promises – and I have every reason to believe that they will – what Charlie Cook fears is a category 3 or 4 storm may be a great deal worse than that. They may have to invent a new scale to measure it.
And I am thinking that there will be a lot of down-ticket damage to Democrats at the state and local level. (If you read the last paragraph of Cooks piece, you can tell that he thinks the same thing will likely happen.)
Obama may immolate the Democrats before he entirely destroys America.
See, there is some hope after all.
A lot of the “Blue Dogs” won seats by less than 5 point margins. That means you need only a swing of 3% of the voters showing at the polls to change the outcome. Overall, the Democrats won with only a 7% margin or so. In other words, Democrats collected 51.86% of all votes for Congressional candidates, Republicans collected 45%.
Alabama districts 2 and 5 are examples. Democrats won district 2 by less than one point. They won district 5 by 3 points. Nevada 3 is another such district … 5 point margin there.
Democrats took their very slim victory in many districts to mean they had some great mandate. Then they passed legislation that the polling data shows the people opposed. That slim margin of victory is going to melt in the House elections. It will take two elections to flip the Senate.