Sean Trende at Real Clear Politics takes another look at the forecast he made ‘waaay back in April. And he is still convinced that the Democrats stand to have a very, very bad election day – quite possibly a historically bad one:
On April 14, President Obama’s Job Approval in the RCP Average was 47.7% approve, 46.7% disapprove. Today it is 45.3%, 49.5% disapprove. The RCP Average in the Generic Congressional Ballot on April 14 was 44.8% for the GOP, 42.3% for Democrats back in April. Today it is 46.5% for the GOP and 40.5% for the Democrats.
Could the Democrats keep Republican gains to under 40 and hold the House? Absolutely. Could they lose 80-90 seats. Absolutely.
I posted about Trende’s original take on this here. Since that original prediction, Obama has slid even lower in the polls. He will be an anchor around the necks of Democrats trying to swim through the tsunami. I talk to people who have never bothered to vote before who are now registered – and plan on voting in November. They are not voting for Democrats.
I hear people talking politics these days who I have never heard utter anything resembling political talk before.
They are not cheering for Obama.
I do not pour over every poll, but I can see the signs all around me. There is a storm coming.
I suspect it’s going to be even worse than 80 or 90 seats, more in the area of 100 or 110. Here in bluer than blue bay area California, the anger is so thick you can cut it with a knife. I cannot go to the grocery store without hearing people simply raging against the government. This district, CA-11, has a two term democrat who is running very scared. He calls himself an “independent” democrat, who just happens to have voted 97% of the time with Nancy Pelosi. Nancy says jump, Jerry McNerney says “How high Nancy”. I’m working for the opposition, so I see some of the internal polling, and trust me, it’s gonna be a blowout in a district Politico keeps calling “leans Democrat”. And I think we’re going to see alot of so called “safe” democrat seats being swept away in the waters of November 2.
I drove South out of San Francisco on Saturday last weekend. I decided to take a bumper sticker census. People in SF generally aren’t shy about their politics and when I did this before back in 2008, I would see a few dozen. Driving South down I-280 about 50 miles at the speed limit means everyone was passing me so I got a look at their rear bumper.
Tally:
1 Obama sticker. The license plate had a University of California frame so that doesn’t surprise me. UC faculty and staff was the biggest donor to the Obama campaign. Even more than Goldman Sachs.
1 Obama Lied sticker.
1 Don’t Tread On Me sticker
And THAT WAS IT. I was shocked at how quickly those bumper stickers have come off those cars!
Barack Obama is the most despised man in America. Think about it.
A vote for any Democrat for national office is a vote for Nancy Pelosi or Harry Reid, and in favor of The Won. A vote for a Democrat for governor or other state office is a vote for higher taxes–spending CAN’T be cut, except for fire and police and maybe teachers. That should be scary enough, but I’m afraid it isn’t quite.