The handwriting is on the wall. Larry Sabato has released his Crystal Ball predictions for the Democrats in November.
Given what we can see at this moment, Republicans have a good chance to win the House by picking up as many as 47 seats, net. This is a “net” number since the GOP will probably lose several of its own congressional districts in Delaware, Hawaii, and Louisiana. This estimate, which may be raised or lowered by Election Day, is based on a careful district-by-district analysis, plus electoral modeling based on trends in President Obama’s Gallup job approval rating and the Democratic-versus-Republican congressional generic ballot (discussed later in this essay). If anything, we have been conservative in estimating the probable GOP House gains, if the election were being held today.
Do read the whole thing – because Sabato all but dooms the Dems in the Senate as well. And he continuously hedges that this first call could be rather – or very – low if a real wave develops. Anyway, this seems appropriate:
UPDATE: It will be worse than Sabato predicts. A lot worse.