In October 2009, I explained why “Apple cannot win the smartphone wars”. That was just a year after Google launched the first Android handset, the G1, on T-Mobile and days after Verizon debuted the hugely-successful Motorola Droid. By end of that year, Android had paltry 3.9 percent smartphone sales share, according to Gartner. My prediction drew loads of criticism from the Apple Fan Club of bloggers, journalists and other writers.
Fast-forward to second quarter 2012 and Android’s global sales share is 64.1 percent for all phones, not just smart ones. iOS: 18.8 percent. My how times change. Increasingly, Android and iOS look exactly like Windows and Mac OS in the 1980s and 1990s, as I predicted would be the case.
Glenn Reynolds remarked the other day that the response to the iPhone 5 appeared lackluster compared to earlier releases. I thought he was right about that. This article shows why that was so. Apple also lost the so-called clone wars for exactly the same reason (read the article).
How many new Android phones come out each month? As opposed to one iPhone a year at best. (Personally, I love my Samsung Galaxy S3, but it’s already been passed in performance by some newer models.)
Central planning will always lose in a truly competitive market. Always. Think about that.
Also, central planning always seems to feed totalitarian excess. Think about that, too.